<p>Job Purpose</p> <p>Create and maintain the demand plan and all forecasting activities associated with customers and products of assigned channel. Ensure demand plans use appropriate statistical models, incorporate business intelligence, and forecast information from sales, marketing, finance, advanced analytics, and other sources. Ensure forecasts deliver current, accurate market information that allows the company to accurately predict and meet customer demand and provides the company with appropriate information to achieve its financial goals.</p> <p>Essential Functions</p> <ul> <li>Create, review, and validate the demand plan for rolling 24-month horizon through statistical models and incorporating business intelligence from multiple sources to achieve an unbiased customer demand plan </li><li>Research demand drivers, prepare forecast data, and prepare analysis to review with sales team </li><li>Review historical sales trends and forecast accuracy reports to validate the statistical models and evaluate forecast results </li><li>Analyze and update multi-level (SKU, customer, plant, warehouse) demand signal based on trends, alerts, models, assumption changes, inputs, etc. </li><li>Communicate with sales, marketing, finance, procurement, supply planning, and other departments to ensure that current, accurate data is available for forecasts </li><li>Prepare data for cross-functional forecasting meetings with the national sales team </li><li>Support the Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) process by analyzing, preparing, and reporting on future and past sales forecast performance </li><li>Participate in cross-functional research activities to reconcile significant variances and refine the forecast model to reflect updated sales and marketing assumptions </li><li>Assist in establishing and driving improvements to Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), including forecast accuracy (MAPE, bias), inventory (gross/net dollars, DIOH), Slow Moving/Obsolete, and customer service (OTIF) </li><li>Partner with sales, marketing, and finance to understand demand forecast drivers </li><li>Participate in the annual planning process; ensure linkage to monthly volume forecast as part of financial forecasting process </li><li>Manage SAP APO DP and volume planning software as the primary forecasting system tool </li><li>Update and maintain other supply chain related systems including ERP, MRP, data mapping tables, etc. </li><li>Provide ad-hoc analytics and scenario planning for, but not limited to, supply chain, customer demand, annual operating plans, sales budget, etc. </li><li>Provide input to supply planning, procurement, commercialization, customer service, etc., in developing inventory strategies on existing items, new products, and product phase-outs </li><li>Assist with phase-on of new products and phase-out of discontinued products </li><li>Track and communicate customer action plans with supply planning </li><li>Support food safety program, quality standards, and legality of manufactured products </li><li>Perform other job-related duties as assigned </li></ul> <p>Qualifications (Education, Experience, Competencies)</p> <ul> <li>Bachelor's degree in supply chain, finance, business, statistics, mathematics or related field </li><li>3-5 years of consumer products forecasting or supply chain operations experience; experience with S&OP processes or supply planning </li><li>Experience with forecasting application or supply planning software </li><li>Experience with or knowledge of IWI, Retail Link, and other external customer data sources </li><li>Food manufacturing experience and familiarity with commodity sensitive businesses preferred </li><li>Retail and foodservice channel experience desired </li><li>Understanding of statistical reasoning including multiple linear regression, coefficient of variation, Pearson seasonal test, and seasonal index </li><li>Quantitative and analytical skills </li><li>Strong computer skills including Microsoft Office with advanced skills in Excel; experience with ERP Systems, SAP APO DP knowledge preferred </li><li>Experience with manufacturing modules including MRP, MPS, and WMS desired </li><li>Ability to think critically and solve complex problems </li><li>Ability to effectively communicate and work with multi-level personnel </li><li>Ability to organize, manage multiple priorities, and maintain high attention to detail in a fast-paced environment </li><li>Self-motivated, goal oriented, quality driven, and capable of working independently with minimal supervision </li></ul> <p>California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Washington, D.C. Residents Only: The salary range for this role is $70,000 to $105,000 annually. Pay is based upon several factors including but not limited to local labor markets, education, work experience, certifications, etc. Rise Baking Company complies with all minimum wage laws as applicable. In addition to your annual salary, Rise Baking Company offers benefits such as, a comprehensive benefits package, annual bonus eligibility, incentive and recognition programs and 401k contributions (all benefits are subject to eligibility requirements). At Rise Baking Company, our people are our finest ingredient.</p>